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Post-conference bonus: Some presentations are now available for download in PDF format below. Right-click the links and download to your computer for viewing. Acrobat Reader 5 or greater is required to view these PDFs. (Tip: When viewing PDFs using Acrobat, press CTRL-L to view PDF in full-screen "slideshow" mode. Press ESC to return to normal view.)
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Printable version of this page |
| 7:00 am |
REGISTRATION & CONTINENTAL BREAKFAST |
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| 8:00 am |
OPENING REMARKS: PROGRAM OVERVIEW |
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Introduction of the Forum Chairman:
David Judge, President, Humford Management
Forum Chairman:
John Frederickson, Managing Director Edmonton, Colliers International |
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| 8:05 am |
KEYNOTE ADDRESS: HOW WILL THE CANADIAN ECONOMY PERFORM OVER THE NEXT YEAR? HOW MUCH GROWTH CAN WE EXPECT? WHAT IS THE IMPACT ON EDMONTON REAL ESTATE? |
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A leading economist will offer forecasts and insights on the short-term and long-term outlook of the North American economy. A range of related issues will be presented: Canadian and U.S. interest rates for the next 12 months, the future direction of energy and oil costs and their implications over the next few years, the outlook for the Canadian dollar and the rates of inflation and bond yields. What are the projections for Edmonton in the next year? How has the province been impacted by the U.S. sub-prime crisis and dollar parity?
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| Benjamin Tal |
Speaker: Benjamin Tal, Senior Economist,
CIBC World Markets (download presentation) |
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| 8:40 am |
EDMONTON AND THE ALBERTA ADVANTAGE: WILL IT CONTINUE OR IS IT OVER? WILL GROWTH CONTINUE OR WILL IT LEVEL OFF? |
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The so called Alberta Advantage – the combination of Canada's smallest government and lowest tax rates – is a significant part of the explanation for the economic boom Albertans have been enjoying. But will the Advantage and economic growth continue? What can be expected with the recent shift in oil and gas capital spending? How will this impact Alberta and Edmonton? Will the heavy oil industry be sufficient to maintain the boom that Albertans have enjoyed in recent years? Discover the answers to these and many other questions about Alberta and its economic future.
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| Niels Veldhuis |
Speaker: Niels Veldhuis, Director of Fiscal Studies,
The Fraser Institute (download presentation) |
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| 9:05 am |
INVESTMENT ROUNDTABLE: WHERE’S THE MONEY? |
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Office, retail, industrial and multi-unit residential sectors continue to enjoy excellent liquidity and at high levels. Edmonton’s real estate remains in strong favour relative to other asset classes. This session will feature a wide-ranging discussion on current and emerging investment trends in Edmonton from the perspective of leading brokers and investment bankers. Who are the most active buyers? Who are the sellers? Which product types are currently most favoured by investors? What have been some of the most significant transactions? How do investor attitudes vary from institutional vs. private and domestic vs. offshore? How does Edmonton compare with Calgary and other Canadian markets?
Moderator: John O’Bryan, Managing Director, TD Securities Realty Group
Panel: Keith Fraser, Executive Vice President & General Manager,
Altus Helyar
Jon Love, Managing Partner, KingSett Capital
Dave Young, Senior Vice President & Managing Director,
CB Richard Ellis Alberta Ltd. |
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| 10:00 am |
MORNING REFRESHMENTS |
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| 10:20 am |
CONCURRENT SESSIONS (Attend 1 of 2) |
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TOPIC A1:
OFFICE MARKET: SUBURBAN VS. DOWNTOWN
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This session will examine the trends in the suburban office sector, how they compare and differ with the downtown market, and what the profiles are of the tenants that are being attracted to these locations. How do suburban vacancy rates compare with the core? To what extent are downtown office rates sending more tenants to outlying locations? How will the business profile of downtown change with suburban migration? To what extent will the addition of the Epcor tower change the market downtown? The session will end with a brief overview of the outlook for Edmonton’s suburban office market for 2008 and beyond.
Moderator: Darin Rayburn, Vice President, Melcor Developments Ltd.
Panel: Ian Bradley, SeniorVice President, Office Leasing,
Colliers International
Ken Cantor, Commercial Manager, Qualico
Sandy McNair, President, Altus Insite (download presentation)
Shaun Wuschke, Vice President Edmonton,
Bentall Real Estate Services LP
TOPIC A2:
THE LAND MARKET – BUY OR SELL?
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With an increasingly limited supply of land in Edmonton, are land values "undervalued" compared to other similarly characterized cities throughout Canada and North America? What are the land options, or lack thereof, regarding industrial, retail, office greenfield and redevelopment sites throughout Edmonton? Housing and condominium markets have slightly softened this spring but it’s not stopping construction — will it affect pricing and investment sales into 2008?
Moderator: John MacDonald, Partner, Associate Broker,
Cushman & Wakefield LePage
Panel: Shawn Kenny, Vice President, Acquisitions & Sales,
Bentall Investment Management
Laurie Scott, Vice President, Development, MLC Group
Ray Watkins, Vice President, WAM Development |
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| 11:25 am |
CONCURRENT SESSIONS (Attend 1 of 3) |
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TOPIC B1:
MULTI-UNIT RESIDENTIAL: WHERE IS IT GOING?
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Notwithstanding Edmonton’s strong population growth, concern was expressed in previous years by some investors about the short and medium term outlook for the multi-unit residential market. However, that has all changed. This session will examine some of the key trends that are contributing to very strong rental market conditions for apartments, e.g. the rental market is experiencing great pressure as a result of price escalations in the housing market that have considerably reduced affordability, the conversion of apartment buildings to condominiums which reduce rental supply, and the continuing in-migration of new households into the Edmonton market. What is the short and medium term outlook for the performance of the Edmonton apartment sector? Are any new apartment buildings being developed? How much concern is there over the provincial government’s comments about the possibility of introducing some form rental controls if significant rent increases continue? Given the rent levels, hy is there a lack of new supply?
Moderator: Richard Goatcher, Senior Market Analyst,
Canada Mortgage & Housing Corporation (download presentation)
Panel: Allan Carr, Senior Vice President, Midwest Property Management
Greg Christenson, President, Christenson Developments Ltd. (download presentation)
Raymond Townsend, Senior Vice President, CB Richard Ellis
Adrian Whittaker, Principal, Kujath + Whittaker Architects
TOPIC B2:
THE CHANGING NATURE OF SHOPPING AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR CURRENT AND FUTURE RETAIL DEVELOPMENTS
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A panel discussion will present a cross-section of players who will comment on the issues, challenges and opportunities of the marketplace. Do all consumers across Canada really want the same stores, products and brands? What formats and innovations are growing in popularity? Will open air centres remain the new normal? What does the future hold for regional centres whose demise continues to be predicted by some pundits? What is in store for new retail formats? What lies ahead for the retail real estate sector in 2008?
Moderator: Arlyn Stoik, Partner, Avison Young Commercial Real Estate (Alberta) (download presentation)
Panel: Dave Carter, Vice President Real Estate and Development,
Sobeys West
Doug Fogg, Partner, Cushman & Wakefield Edmonton Inc.
Andrew Megson, President, Springwood Land Corporation
Chris Wood, Principal, Northwest Atlantic Canada Corporation
TOPIC B3:
CONSTRUCTION ISSUES & DEVELOPMENT COSTS: WHY DOES LAND AND CONSTRUCTION COST THIS MUCH?
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With the cost of land, labour and construction materials costs rising at an unprecedented rate, developers must find creative means to make their projects viable. Because construction cost projections are in a constant state of increase, it is virtually impossible to budget for the next five to seven years. What are the factors contributing to this and when will it end? Or at least level off? What can developers and construction companies do to draw and retain labour talent? With these market conditions, how can developers realistically manage development projects? With the rate of price appreciation in the resale condo market slowing, will a cost-price squeeze drastically reduce developer profit margins?
Moderator: Darrell Halliwell, Partner, Cohos Evamy
Panel: Peter Dawson, Principal, Dawson Wallace Construction
Paul Douglas, President & COO, Canadian Buildings,
PCL Constructors Inc.
Iain McCorkindale, Director, Altus Helyar Cost Consulting (download presentation)
Kevin McKee, Partner, WAM Development Group
Bob Walker, Vice President, Northern Alberta, Ledcor Construction Group |
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| 12:25 pm |
RECEPTION AND LUNCHEON |
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| 1:40 pm |
CONCURRENT SESSIONS (Attend 1 of 3) |
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TOPIC C1:
INDUSTRIAL MARKET — HAS EDMONTON MORPHED INTO TWO DISTINCT MARKETS?
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There's no denying that the Edmonton industrial market is in the midst of "boom" activity levels but the new reality of higher lease rates for industrial space has put pressure on certain tenants or users. While the energy sector seems to be able to afford the new cost base, the typical (non-oil & gas) distributor is challenged to keep their business model intact. Where do these increased costs/lease rates come from? How are these new lease rates impacting activity levels? What is the forecast for demand given the various projects including the Port of Prince Rupert, Port Alberta and the various "Heartland" projects? Is the Edmonton industrial market expected to continue to grow?
Moderator: Rod Connop, Vice President, Industrial Division,
Colliers International (download presentation)
Panel: Randy Cameron, Senior Vice President Western Canada Region,
Dundee Real Estate Management Corporation
Paul Derksen, Senior Vice President, Regional Partner,
Verus Partners Canada Inc.
Ross Fraser, President, Trillium Realty Advisors Inc.
Kevin McKee, Partner, WAM Development Group
TOPIC C2:
MIXED USE DEVELOPMENT: NOT AS SIMPLE AS YOU MIGHT THINK
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As cost-effective as mixed used development may be, it does include the challenge of having all the parts work together. If one area is delayed, it affects the whole. Delayed financing in one component can impact on financing of another and so on. All need to work together in order to move ahead. This session will look at mixed use: what is it really? Is it continuous or integrated? What are its future trends? What are the complexities?
Moderator: Randy Ferguson, President, Westcorp Properties Inc. (download presentation)
Panel: Fraser Brinsmead, Partner, Brinsmead Ziola Kennedy Architecture
Eric Carlson, President & CEO, Anthem Properties Inc. (download presentation)
George Schluessel, CEO, ProCura
TOPIC C3:
OPEN DIALOGUE WITH EDMONTON'S CITY MANAGER, AND PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT EXECUTIVE
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This session will provide some valuable insights and a greater understanding of the major elements within the City of Edmonton that affect real estate development, investment and leasing activities: transportation, infrastructure services and capital projects, and planning and development. City officials will discuss some of their current policies and programs, and what may lie ahead in the future. They will comment on their practices and what steps are being taken to try to deal with managing the growing volume of construction, development and growth in the Edmonton market.
Moderator: Jim Taylor, Executive Director,
Downtown Business Association of Edmonton
Speakers: Gary Klassen MCIP, ACP, General Manager,
Planning & Development Department, City of Edmonton
Al Maurer, City Manager, City of Edmonton (download presentation) |
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| 2:45 pm |
AFTERNOON REFRESHMENTS |
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| 2:45 pm |
WHAT HAS HAPPENED TO THE CREDIT MARKETS? HOW HAS THIS AFFECTED PRIVATE EQUITY AND THE CAPITAL MARKETS? |
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The past six months have seen a major swing from a market awash with low cost capital and high leverage strategies to a significant tightening of credit underwriting and depletion of private equity buyout opportunities. The cost of capital and the cost of equity have dramatically changed. What has happened to the investor and financier’s risk tolerance for real estate? How is it being re-priced in the market? How can an entrepreneur navigate through this changing market? What is the difference between U.S. and Canadian experience? What is the outlook for credit and capital availability for 2008? How has all of this affected the interest of the buy side and the capital markets appetite for the real estate asset class?
Moderator: Jan Willey, Partner, Montrose Mortgage
Panel: Richard Brownscombe, President, Montrose Mortgage
Cam Grieve, Director, GE Real Estate
Terry Whalen, Managing Director, Capital Markets, CB Richard Ellis Limited |
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| 3:35 pm |
CLOSING DISCUSSION: FINAL COMMENTS ON THE RISKS, TRENDS, CHALLENGES, AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR 2008 |
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Given the broad range of issues that were raised during the Real Estate Forum throughout the day, a panel of well respected senior Canadian real estate executives will have the last word. They will provide their insights and perspectives individually and as a collective, on what they believe are the most critical issues and market trends that the industry must deal with in 2008, and what courses of action they would suggest accordingly. The panel represents a divergence of interests and viewpoints.
Moderator: John Frederickson, Managing Director Edmonton,
Colliers International
Panel: Bruce Bentley, President & CEO, MacLab Enterprises
Peter Cohos, Principal, Tonko Realty Advisors
Amy Erixon, Chief Executive Officer, IG Realty Investments Inc.
Scott Hutcheson, Chairman, President & CEO, Aspen Properties Ltd.
Phil Milroy, CEO, Westcorp Inc.
Ralph Young, President & CEO, Melcor Developments Ltd. |
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| 4:20 pm |
CLOSING COMMENTS |
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| 4:25 pm |
CHAIRMAN'S RECEPTION |
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© 2008 MMPI Canada Inc. |
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